Project Scheduling Using
State-based Probabilistic Decision Networks


Photios G. Ioannou
Civil & Environmental Engineering Department
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2125, U.S.A.
  Julio C. Martinez
Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil Engineering
Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, Virginia 24061-0105, U.S.A.


This paper presents probabilistic CPM scheduling using an add-on program to the STROBOSCOPE simulation system that allows dependence and correlation between activity durations as well as control over precedence and the selection of paths. Activity durations and sequencing can be defined in terms of the dynamic information that becomes available as a project evolves and includes the actual start date and duration of activities already started. An example highway project illustrates the modeling power of this approach.


STROBOSCOPE, highway, construction, simulation, modeling , animation,  activity scanning, CPM, PERT, probability, scheduling.


Ioannou, P.G., Martinez, J.C., "Project Scheduling Using State-based Probabilistic Decision Networks" Proceedings, Winter Simulation Conference 98, 1287-1295, Washington, D.C., December 13-16, 1998

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